Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 2.050365 2.172610 2.301241 2.447180 2.608774 2.782937 2.985797
2025-09-21 1.844271 2.009369 2.191326 2.408462 2.662854 2.954439 3.318397
2025-09-28 1.704385 1.890592 2.102134 2.363347 2.681716 3.063351 3.565471
2025-10-05 1.641002 1.848829 2.091296 2.400029 2.790295 3.278507 3.955227
2025-10-12 1.591411 1.816809 2.085847 2.437751 2.897407 3.495570 4.367229
2025-10-19 1.546269 1.785460 2.076673 2.466754 2.991592 3.700072 4.783377
2025-10-26 1.489526 1.735434 2.039576 2.454873 3.027421 3.824533 5.095448
2025-11-02 1.438835 1.689710 2.004370 2.441525 3.057806 3.940927 5.406844
2025-11-09 1.386892 1.639500 1.960069 2.412014 3.061487 4.016008 5.658937
2025-11-16 1.338721 1.591801 1.916327 2.379895 3.057766 4.077529 5.893947
2025-11-23 1.307566 1.564772 1.898409 2.382043 3.103335 4.217989 6.285594
2025-11-30 1.284718 1.547510 1.892429 2.400067 3.172967 4.402182 6.786351
2025-12-07 1.244130 1.505606 1.851699 2.366676 3.162677 4.455949 7.051331
2025-12-14 1.204892 1.464192 1.810005 2.329683 3.144086 4.493649 7.290794
2025-12-21 1.166311 1.422349 1.766027 2.286924 3.113080 4.506160 7.478589
2025-12-28 1.155262 1.417601 1.773737 2.321688 3.209504 4.754501 8.234408
2026-01-04 1.145176 1.413632 1.782090 2.357421 3.309619 5.020653 9.101412
2026-01-11 1.133144 1.406401 1.785233 2.384882 3.397297 5.273284 10.009780
2026-01-18 1.110531 1.383519 1.764619 2.373634 3.416452 5.391976 10.596020
2026-01-25 1.088728 1.361112 1.743850 2.360995 3.431974 5.504567 11.199212
2026-02-01 1.063768 1.333514 1.714465 2.333044 3.417876 5.553256 11.626154
2026-02-08 1.039297 1.305997 1.684356 2.302609 3.397274 5.585831 12.014426
2026-02-15 1.024652 1.292211 1.674340 2.304645 3.436760 5.754470 12.915717